Determining the thermal threshold to identify the types of jet stream and analyzing the variation of its role in motivating rainfall over Iraq
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31973/s4crwv84Keywords:
Iraq, climate change, jet stream, depressions, precipitationAbstract
The primary objective of this study is to utilize thermal threshold to accurately identify the types of jet streams associated with rainfall events in Iraq and to analyze variations in their frequency along with their relation to mid-latitude frontal cyclones and Sudanese depressions during the period from 1955 to 2023. The analysis of the jet stream using this methodology revealed that there is a systematic coupling of the polar jet stream with all rainfall days generated by mid-latitude frontal cyclones with significant spatial variation. The occurrence rate in southern Iraq was 58.8%, but only 12.9% in the northern part. The polar jet stream was found to link with Sudanese depressions, or their rainy days, at a rate of 60.5%. Statistical analyses using the Mann-Kendall test revealed significant climatic shifts in jet stream dynamics over Iraq. Specifically, the polar jet stream’s frequency declined by 26% in southern Iraq for frontal cyclones and 4% for Sudanese depressions. Conversely, central Iraq experienced a rising trend in polar jet stream frequency during the study period. For the subtropical jet stream, the highest frequency was recorded outside Iraq in the southern region neighboring the country (25°N–28°N). Over Iraq, the frequency of the subtropical jet stream in the region was 31%. There was a significant increase in the frequency rate during the study period (about 8% in the adjacent southern area and 4% over southern Iraq).
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