Evaluation of Summer Season Characteristics and Its Changes in Iraq over the Period (1960-2021)

Authors

  • Hana Salah Al-Jubouri Department of Geography & GIS, College of Arts, University of Baghdad, Baghdad. Iraq
  • Prof. Khamis Daham Muslih Department of Geography and Geographical Information Systems- College of Arts - University of Baghdad

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31973/jyhm8t87

Keywords:

climate change, Iraq, Mann-Kendall test, summer season, trend analysis

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change has essentially affected the characteristics of the thermal seasons, hence the overall ecosystems, and human health. The characteristics of the thermal seasons in Iraq, and how they change are still unclear. This research has been conducted to: (1) evaluate the spatial characteristics of summer season in Iraq over the period (1960-2021). (2) Estimating changes in the length and timing (onset and end) of summer in Iraq using the Mann-Kendall test (MK) and Sen's slope estimator. The findings indicated that there are significant spatial differences in the average length of the summer season in Iraq. The difference reaching more than 30 days between northern and southern Iraq, It is longer in the south. Results of trend analysis showed that summer season length significantly increases by 3.33 and 6.67 days/decade respectively. Our results reveal that, all over Iraq, the onset of thermal summer season occurs earlier by more than 17 days during (1960-2021). The biggest statistically significant changes in summer advancing were observed in northern and western Iraq. However, the results revealed that the only western Iraq has been recorded advancing at the end of the summer, while the end of the summer at all other parts occurred later.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Abdulkareem, A. K., Matrood, L. M., & Muter, S. A. (2020). Detection of the Change of Meteorological Season in Middle and Southern Iraq. Plant Arch, 20, 1028-1033.

Ahmadalipour A, MoradkhaniH (2018) Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environ Int 117:215–225

Ajjur, S. B., & Al‐Ghamdi, S. G. (2021) Seventy‐year disruption of seasons characteristics in the Arabian Peninsula. International Journal of Climatology, 41(13), 5920-5937.

Aksu, H. (2022) A determination of season shifting across Turkey in the period 1965–2020. International Journal of Climatology, 42(16), 8232-8247.

AL- Goran, M.M., (2019) Change of climatic seasons days number in Iraq. Dissertation (unpublished), University of Wasit. (In Arabic)

Al-Budeiri AL (2021) Trends in temperature and rain change in Iraq and its future projections. Al-Adab Journal, 3 (137), 443–472. https://doi.org/10.31973/aj.v3i137.1129 (In Arabic)

Alexandersson H (1986) Ahomogeneity test applied to precipitation data. J Climatol 6:661–675. doi:10.1002/joc.3370060607

Alghamdi, A. S. (2024) Climatology and Changes in Temperature Seasonality in the Arabian Peninsula. Atmosphere, 15(1), 26.

Allen, M.J., & Sheridan, S.C. (2016) Evaluating changes in season length, onset, and end dates across the United States (1948–2012). Int. J. Clim, 36, 1268–1277.

Almazroui, M., Khalid, M. S., Islam, M. N., & Saeed, S. (2020) Seasonal and regional changes in temperature projections over the Arabian Peninsula based on the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble dataset. Atmospheric Research, 239.

Berghof Foundation & Peace Paradigms Organisation (PPO) (2023) Climate change effects on conflict dynamics in Iraq Study of Makhmur, Tal Afar, and Al-Rifai districts, Berlin: Berghof Foundation Operations.

Casanueva A, Kotlarski S, Fischer AM, Flouris AD, Kjellstrom T, Lemke B, Nybo L, Schwierz C, Liniger MA. (2020) Escalating environmental summer heat exposure-a future threat for the European workforce. Reg Environ Chang 20:40

Christidis, N., Stott, P. A., Brown, S., Karoly, D. J., & Caesar, J. (2007) Human Contribution to the Lengthening of the Growing Season during 1950–99. Journal of Climate, 20(21), 5441-5454. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1568.1

Czernecki, B., Miętus, M. (2017) The thermal seasons variability in Poland, 1951–2010. Theor Appl Climatol 127, 481–493 , https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1647-z

Doostan, R.,&Alijani, B.(2023) Evaluating the onset, end, and length of seasons in selected stations in Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 151(1-2).

Gilbert RO. (1987) Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring. Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York

Hochman A, Marra F, Messori G, Pinto J G, Raveh-Rubin S, Yosef Y, Zittis G. (2022) Extreme weather and societal impacts in the eastern Mediterranean. Earth System Dynamics, 13(2), 749-777.

IPCC, (2021) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, In press, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.

Kadhim, A.A. (1998) Imbalance of Climatic Seasons in Iraq, Arab Geographer Journal, Arab Geography and the International. Geographical Union, Baghdad, Vol. 4 and 5. (in Arabic)

Kendall MG. (1975) Rank Correlation Methods, 4th edition. Charles Griffin, London, U.K.

Lin, W., & Wang, C. (2022). Longer summers in the Northern Hemisphere under global warming. Climate Dynamics, 58(9-10), 2293-2307.

Mann, H.B., (1945). Nonparametric Tests Against Trend. Econometrica 13, 245–259. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1907187.

Muslih, K. D. (2014) Identifying the climatic conditions in Iraq by tracking down cooling events in the North Atlantic Ocean in the period 3000–0 BC. Miscellanea geographica, 18(3), 40-46.

Muslih, K. D. (2022) Annual and Monthly Trends of Cooling and Heating Degree-Days in Four Different Cities in Iraq as an Index of Energy Consumption. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 58(1), 33-43.

Muslih, K.D & Abbas, A.M. (2024) Climate of Iraq, In; The Geography of Iraq, World Regional Geography Book Series. Springer.

Muslih, K. D., & Błażejczyk, K. (2017) The inter-annual variations and the long-term trends of monthly air temperatures in Iraq over the period 1941–2013. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 130(1-2), 583-596.‏

Naqi NM, Al-Jiboori MH, Al-Madhhachi AS. (2021) Statistical analysis of extreme weather events in the Diyala River basin, Iraq. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 12(8), 3770-3785.

Önöz B, Bayazıt M. (2003) The power of statistical tests for trend detection. Turk J Eng Environ Sci 27:247–251

Pal, J. S., & Eltahir, E. A. (2016) Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability.Nature Climate Change, 6(2), 197-200.

Park BJ, Kim YH, Min SK, & Lim EP. (2018) Anthropogenic and natural contributions to the lengthening of the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere. J Climate 31:6803–6819. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1175/ jcli-d- 17- 0643.1

Park, B.-J., Min, S.-K., & Ryu, Y.H. (2022) Inter-model differences in future summer onset over the northern high latitudes. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL100739. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100739

Peña-Ortiz, C., Barriopedro, D., & García-Herrera, R. (2015) Multidecadal variability of the summer length in Europe. Journal of Climate, 28(13), 5375-5388.

Price, S. F. D., Pitts, T. R., & Van Roekel, L. (2021) Climate Change and International Responses Increasing Challenges to US National Security Through 2040: LANL contributions to 2021 National Intelligence Estimate (No. LA-UR-21-32421). Los Alamos National Lab.(LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Rahman, S. M., Rahman, S. M., Ali, M. S., Mamun, M. A. A., & Uddin, M. N. (2020) Estimation of seasonal boundaries using temperature data: a case of northwest part of Bangladesh. Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting, 6(1), 50-6

Republic of Iraq, Ministry of Planning, Control statically organization “Annual statistical abstract”, Available from: https://cosit.gov.iq/ar/?option=com_content&view=article&layout=edit&id=174&jsn_setmobile=no

Salman SA, Shahid S, Ismail T, Chung ES., & Al-Abadi AM. (2017) Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes in Iraq. Atmospheric research, 198, 97-107.

Sen, P.K., 1968. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s Tau. J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 63: 1379-1389. DOI: 10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934

Seneviratne, S.I., X., Zhang, M. Adnan, W., Badi, C., Dereczynski, A., Di Luca, S., Ghosh, I., Iskandar, J., Kossin, S., Lewis, F., Otto, I., Pinto, M., Satoh, S.M., Vicente-Serrano, M., Wehner, and B. Zhou, (2021) Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1513–1766, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.013.

Siebert S, Ewert F. (2014) Future crop production threatened by extreme heat. Environmental Research Letters, 9(4), 041001.

Wang J, Guan Y, Wu L et al. (2021) Changing lengths of the four seasons by global warming. Geophys Res Lett 48:e2020GL091753. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091753

Wang, J., Guan, Y., Wu, L., Guan, X., Cai, W., Huang, J., et al. (2021) Changing lengths of the four seasons by global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL091753.https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091753

Zittis, G., Hadjinicolaou, P., & Lelieveld, J. (2021) Climate change projections for the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East based on CORDEX-CORE simulations. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (pp. EGU21-1175).

Zittis, G., Hadjinicolaou, P., Fnais, M., & Lelieveld, J. (2016) Projected changes in heat wave characteristics in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Regional environmental change, 16, 1863-1876.

Downloads

Published

2024-12-15

How to Cite

Al-Jubouri, H. ., & Muslih, K. (2024). Evaluation of Summer Season Characteristics and Its Changes in Iraq over the Period (1960-2021). Al-Adab Journal, 151, 73-96. https://doi.org/10.31973/jyhm8t87

Publication Dates

Received

2024-09-15

Revised

2024-10-08

Accepted

2024-11-05

Published Online First

2024-12-15

Similar Articles

1-10 of 822

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.

Most read articles by the same author(s)