The probability and the return periods for the types of tropical depressions affecting the southern coasts of the Arabian Peninsula and Somalia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31973/aj.v1i135.1007Keywords:
Tropical cyclones, Annual repetition,, Monthly repetition, Probability, Returns periodsAbstract
Tropical depressions has developed into cyclones which are the most dangerous in the world because of their destructive power, and they are abundant in the northern part of Indian Ocean, of which the Arabian Sea is part. Therefore, this research came to know more about it in terms of its recurrence and specifically its impact on Arabian coast in the northwestern part of the Indian Ocean during period (1967 - 2018), i.e. for a period of (42) years, with the identification of regions of origin and the category of cyclones affecting each time. The research found that the region is affected by all categories of tropical cyclones without exception, but the biggest effect is for the second category (TS), which is the type of tropical storm. The region was also subjected to cyclones Category Five hurricane type, but with little repetition, and this was characteristic of the last decade of the study period. Knowing that most of the cyclones Formed on the eastern side of the Arabian Sea and affects the Omani, Yemeni and Somali coasts, it was found that their recurrence is active in two seasons, the first during spring season which is the smallest season, and the second is during the autumn season, which records higher occurrences of tropical cyclones. the law of probability and the return periods has been applied, and it has been found that the most dangerous the cyclones, the less chances it will occur or its frequency and the weaker the opportunity to return.
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